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Risk-on / risk-off meter

When the market has appetite, equities, the Australian dollar and commodities rise together. When it does not, gold, the franc and bonds take over. The meter measures how coherent that move is.

Risk appetite

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Computing…

Method: each component is scaled by its own standard deviation, measured over six months of four-hour candles, before being averaged. Without that normalisation copper — five times more volatile than the S&P 500 — would dictate the result on its own. The score is the average of the votes, capped at two standard deviations.

The basket, component by component

One vote each, weighted by its own volatility

Asset	Role	Change	Std. deviations	Vote

What this measure is for

The risk regime explains a large share of currency moves, often more than country-specific news. In a risk-off phase the yen and the franc appreciate against nearly everything, without anything having happened in Japan or Switzerland.

The value of the meter is in the coherence, not the level. A score near zero with components contradicting each other describes a market without a common direction — precisely when the usual correlations stop holding.

Read it as context, not as a signal. It says what stage your trade is playing on; it does not say what to buy, or when.

Its limits

The basket is fixed and arbitrary. Nine assets represent the global risk regime reasonably well, but no basket captures it entirely, and other choices would give other numbers.

Normalisation assumes recent volatility predicts current volatility. After a shock, a standard deviation measured over six months understates the regime under way, and scores saturate.

The meter is descriptive, not predictive. It measures what just happened over twenty-four hours or a week — not what comes next.

Other tools

Position size How much to buy so you only risk what you decided. Pip value What one pip is worth, in your currency, for your size. Profit and loss What a trade earns or costs, before you take it.

Go further: Multi-timeframe, liquidity and gold analysis

The same maths lives inside the terminal

Sizing, stop distance and targets are recomputed on every signal, live, next to the chart.

Open the terminal See plans

These tools perform arithmetic on market prices. They are not investment advice, not a recommendation and not a promise of any result. Figures ignore spread, commission and financing costs unless stated otherwise.